Advance Risk Management - Associateship
ISQ Examination (Summer-2007)


Q.1 Please write the alphabate of selected choice in the answer column: (06)
i
In a rapidly de-regulated business environment which of the following factor causes the maximum rise in the risk of the entire banking sector?

A)     Incompatibility of the computer software in use in banks
B)     Inability of the banks to safeguard against the resultant volatility in all markets
C)     Employee infidelity                                      D) None of the above
ii

Which of the following can give rise to “Reputational Risk”?

A)      Rare instances of delay in meeting inter-bank borrowing repayment commitments
B)      Attributes of the bank’s products or services or employee interaction that are adverse for the product or           service buyers
C)      Exit of a key executive                       D) None of the above

iii

What is meant by the expression “Systemic Risk”?

A)     Risk arising out of failure of internal operational controls in a bank
B)     Risk arising out of the inadequacies of the information technology (IT) systems of a bank
C)    Risk for the entire financial services system of a country that arises principally out of ill-liquidity or         insolvency of one or several financial institutions
D)    None of the above

iv

Which is the first indicator of developing weakness in a country’s external sector?

A)        Default on external loan repayment commitments
B)        Requests for re-structuring of the country’s external debt
C)       Steady but sustained rise in the country’s trade deficit
D)       None of the above

v

What is meant by foreign portfolio investment?

A)     Investment meant for investment in physical assets
B)     Investment meant for deployment in risk asset portfolios of banks
C)     Investment funds to be deployed either directly or through mutual funds in market securities
D)     None of the above

vi

Which of the following fall in the category of “Market Risk”?

A)      Likely devaluation of the Pak Rupee
B)      Lack of telecom connectivity in a bank’s branch network
C)      Inadequacy of a bank’s trade finance supervisory capacity
D)      Movements in commodity prices
E)      None of the above


Q.2
If, for a short period (two or three years) inflation is deliberately understated to bring down interest rates, and thereafter inflation rises to its realistic level, which of the following distortions this could create? (05)
  Borrowing by consumers in excess of their repayment capacity, over-heating of the economy, and inflation
  Reduced inter-bank borrowing and lending
  Capacity expansion by industry based on temporary low borrowing cost. The increased capacity becomes unprofitable when borrowing costs begin to rise once inflation is correctly stated
  Banks expand their branch networks abroad
  Rise in bank profitability builds shareholder expectations too high about future profits that banks can’t deliver through lending alone and thus indulge in speculative trading in currencies and stock markets
  Financial stability is restored
  Over-expansion of bank’s domestic networks and manpower, that becomes marginally productive and a burden on already reduced future bank profitability
  Low returns on deposits force savers to indulge in speculative activities instead of saving
  None of the above

Q.3
State True or False in the answer column. Give brief reason for your selection at the space provided below the question: (07)
i
Negative real returns on savings result in a net investment loss to the savers over time
ii
During periods of high market liquidity, systemic risk goes up:
iii
High employee mobility is good for the banking sector
iv
Foreign portfolio investment is a stable source of foreign exchange inflows
v
In developing countries still burdened with substantial external debt and rising negative balance of trade liberalization of the foreign exchange regulations can pose long-term economic dangers
vi
Credit Opinion from a Credit Rating Agency is superior to Credit Reference
vii
Failure of one bank leading to the failure of another and another is called the “domino” effect

Q.4 (A)
A consensus is developing among the bankers that Pakistan does not have enough trained bankers to keep pace with the increase in branch networks and the expanding the range of banking products and services. If the sector expands at 150 branches a year, list which two risk-types would go up and briefly explain why? (04)
Q.4 (B)
Is it advisable for banks to hire agents on a per transaction commission basis for selling consumer finance products? What risks if any are involved therein? (05)

Q.5
Not up-dating and expanding the range of banking products and services on a timely basis can gradually reduce a bank’s market access and market share, giving rise to disadvantages that flow from not having a critical mass of the customer base. Besides developing competitive products and services, list the other steps a bank must take to ensure growth in its customer, asset and liability bases. (15)

Q.6
Your bank plans to build an asset portfolio in housing finance. List your preferences for developing a sound asset base in terms of (a) the localities where properties be financed, (b) the customer-types to be financed, and (c) the property types to be financed. (10)

Q.7 (A)
How does compliance participate in the overall risk supervision activity of a bank? (02)
Q.7 (B)
Besides the performance of day-to-day duties, what is the other critical role of compliance officers and how does it help the bank? (04)
Q.7 (C)
Should compliance officers report to branch managers, if not, why not then who should they report to? (04)
Q.7 (D)
Of the following indicator trends, which ones could weaken a country’s currency. Tick in left hand column. (03)
  Static level of exports while imports continue to rise
  Steadily rising trade deficit
  Political tensions arising out of electoral uncertainties
  Steadily rising payments on external debt while foreign portfolio and direct is slowing down
  A natural calamity that affects a non-productive territory of the country

Q.8 (A)
Please briefly identify the factors give rise to Sovereign Risk and Country Risk do highlight the difference between the two (05)
Q.8 (B)
What is meant by “Prime Lending Rate” . Please explain briefly. (02)
Q.8 (C)
List the amounts/costs that must be included in the formula for determining a bank’s Prime Lending rate. (03)

Q.9
According to the terms of Basle Accord, loans to borrowers that are not rated either by an external rating agency or internally by the banks will automatically carry 100% risk weight. In a country like Pakistan, which has only two external credit rating agencies and majority of business are un-rated, what are the implications for banks capital and profitability? How these can be avoided/reduced. (15)

Q.10
Governor State Bank of Pakistan in her recent speech covered Emerging Challenges and risks. Given below is an extract from her speech.

“Pakistani banks are today faced with new forms of risks which have altered the nature and type of risk they are exposed to – aside from standard corporate assets whose credit risks is changing with the size and complexities of businesses, banks are now engaging in diverse businesses and sectors and are now extending their exposure to household sector and growth in bank trading books has increased exposure to market risk – a recent phenomena in Pakistan. Concurrently, banks’ overall risk profile is also affected by the complex interdependencies now emerging because of cross ownership of financial institutions and corporate sector”.

Do you agree with her assessment. Why and why not. (10)