Macro Economics and Financial System of Pakistan - Stage-I
ISQ Examination (Summer-2007)

 

Q.1 Please write the alphabet of selected answer column:                                                                        (30)
i

Lead to a decrease in aggregate demand by:

A)      An increase in government spending          B)      A decrease in labor productivity
C)      An increase in personal income taxes      D)       An increase in society’s total wealth
E)      None of the above

ii

An example of structural unemployment is

A)      A computer programmer who quits his job to move to a warmer climate
B)      A construction worker who loses his job in the winter
C)     An autoworker who loses her job during a recession
D)     A steelworker who is replaced by a robot                     E)       None of the above

iii

If the rate of growth in an economy is 2 percent, inflation is 3 percent, and the nominal rate of interest is 10 percent, the real rate of interest is _____ percent.

A)      5        B)      7        C)      8       D)        12            E)        None of the above

iv

If a nation's depreciation exceeds its gross investment, we can say that:

A)         net investment is positive                             B)       the nation’s stock of capital is growing
C)         the nation’s stock of capital is declining       D)       the nation’s GDP will rise
E)         None of the above

v

Expand aggregate demand according to Keynesians (demand-side economists), but stimulate aggregate supply according to supply-siders by:

A)          Increasing government purchases of goods and services
B)          Increasing transfer payments
C)         Decreasing the money supply
D)         Increasing the general level of interest rates
E)         None of the above

vi

According to Keynesian theory, a combination of __________ policies below is consistent (that is, the policies would tend to reinforce instead of offset each other).

A)       Decrease taxes; increase government spending; increase the money supply
B)       Decrease taxes; decrease government spending; increase the money supply
C)       Decrease taxes; increase government spending; decrease the money supply
D)       Increase taxes; increase government spending; increase the money supply
E)       None of the above

vii

The discount rate is the interest rate at which

A)      the SBP lends to commercial banks                B)       commercial banks lend to each other
C)      the public lends to the federal government       D)       the SBP lends to the Government of Pakistan
E)      None of the above

viii

An economy is experiencing low rates of unemployment with high inflation. An appropriate mix of government policies might be to

A)      increase taxes; decrease government spending; increase interest rates
B)      decrease taxes; increase government spending; decrease interest rates
C)     decrease taxes; decrease government spending; decrease interest rates
D)     increase taxes; decrease government spending; decrease interest rates
E)     none of the above

ix

Fiscal policy refers to the control of

A)       interest rates by the SBP
B)       business policies to increase competition
C)       the government budget to influence total spending
D)       government spending in order to balance the budget
E)       none of the above

x

Contractionary economic policy?

A)      The selling of securities by the SBP      B)      Increases in the size of the federal budget deficit
C)      Reductions in interest rates                   D)     Increased rate of growth of the money supply
E)       None of the above

xi

Which one of the following could lead to an increase in the underlying rate of inflation?

A)      A fall in the exchange rate                          B)      A fall in the balance of payments surplus
C)      A fall in the government budget deficit        D)      A fall in consumer spending
E)      None of the above

xii

The table below shows the rate of inflation for a country over a four year period.

Year                        1997         1998            1999             2000
Rate of Inflation          5%           7%               8%               2%

Which of the following statements is correct?

A)           The price level was at its lowest at the start of the period
B)           The price level was at its lowest at the end of the period
C)           The rate of inflation was at its highest in the year 2000
D)           The price level fluctuated over the period
E)            None of the above

xiii

The primary result of inflation is

A)        a decline in prices           B)      a rise in personal wealth
C)        a rise in wages                D)      a decline in the value of money
E)        None of the above

xiv

The following figures are taken from the index of retail prices for three countries
Country              Year2                  Year3
A)                       100                      110
B)                       115                      130
C)                      112                       118
D)                      None                    None
(Year 1 = 100)

The table shows that between Year 2 and Year 3

A)      Country A had the highest rate of economic growth
B)      Country C had the lowest rate of inflation
C)      Country C had the highest national income per head of population
D)      Country B had the lowest rate of inflation
E)      None of the above

xv

Inflation is defined as

A)       The increase in average prices in the retail sector
B)       The percentage expansion of the economy over the last year
C)       The rise in labour costs over the last year
D)       The percent change in the price level over the preceding twelve months
E)        None of the above

xvi

Price stability occurs when

A)       The general price level in the economy increases at a steady and low rate
B)       There is no change in the exchange rate against other currencies
C)      All prices in the economy are constant
D)      The rate of inflation is zero
E)       None of the above

xvii

Between April 2005 and July 2006, State Bank of Pakistan increased interest rates by 2.0% to try to curb inflationary pressures. An increase in interest rates might be expected to help reduce inflation because a rise in interest rates is likely to

A)          Reduce consumer spending                     B)       Increase investment spending
C)          Reduce the value of the Pak Rupee         D)       Lead to an increase in the money supply
E)          None of the above

xviii

Which one of the following is not a major macroeconomic objective of the government.

A)        low inflation                                 B)       sustained economic growth
C)        high level of employment              D)       fall in the crude oil prices
E)         None of the above

xix

The money value of goods and services produced in a year within geographical boundaries of a country is known as

A)        Gross national product              B)          Gross domestic product
C)        Balance of payments                 D)          Per capita income
E)         None of the above

xx

In the commonly accepted definition of recession, the level of level of national output

A)       rises at faster rate                       B)         rises at a slower rate
C)       rises lower than inflation rate       D)         falls                              E)       None of the above

xxi

Which one of the following would best indicate economic growth, an index of

A)         Share prices                    B)        Company profile
C)        Consumer spending         D)        Gross domestic product
E)        None of the above

xxii

Which one of the following is a direct tax

A)       Car insurance tax           B)       Value added tax
C)       Excise duty on petrol     D)        Income tax                E)          None of the above

xxiii

A decision by the government to introduce an expansionary fiscal policy would be less likely to succeed in reducing unemployment if a country had

A)             A high level of cyclical unemployment and spare capacity
B)             A fixes exchange rate
C)            A low level of business and consumer confidence
D)            A high marginal propensity to import

xxiv

All other things being same, a government is undertaking a contractionary fiscal policy if it reduced

A)        Exchange rate                             B)           Tax rate
C)        Government expenditures            D)           Interest rate            E)         None of the above

xxv

Mr. A earns Rs.2 million per year and pays Rs.0.4 million in income tax. Mr. B earns Rs.3 million and pays Rs.0.8 million in income tax. Mr. C earns Rs.1 million and pays Rs.0.1 million in income tax. The income tax system is

A)       Proportional            B)        Progressive           C)             Regressive
D)       Flat rate                  E)        None of the above

xxvi

In national income accounting which one of the following is treated as a transfer payment

A)          Interest paid to holders of government debt
B)          Expenditure on the government's armed forces operating in other countries
C)         Government spending on research and development spending in the defense sector
D)         Salaries paid to civil servants                E)           None of the above

xxvii

Which of the following is the most accurate indicator of a nation's standard of living?

A)       Gross domestic product          B)        Real national income per capita
C)       Gross national product            D)        Real national income                   E)        None of the above

xxviii

A government may seek to improve the current account of the balance of payments by introducing either expenditure-reducing or expenditure-switching policies. Which of the following is an expenditure-reducing policy?

A)           Devaluation of the currency                      B) A rise in income tax
C)           The introduction of an import tariff
D)           The introduction of an export subsidy        E) None of the above

xxix

A foreign firm builds a subsidiary factory in Pakistan to produce goods solely for the Pakistan market. Assuming that this subsidiary is profitable, the impact on Pakistan’s balance of payments is likely to be

A)        A capital credit item following by a stream of current account debit items
B)        A capital credit item following by a stream of capital account debit items
C)       A current account credit item following by a stream of capital account debit items
D)       A current account credit item following by a stream of current account debit items
E)       None of the above

xxx

If the aggregate supply curve is drawn as perfectly inelastic, an increase in aggregate demand will lead to an increase in

A)         The price level         B)        Economic growth         C)        Real national output
D)         Employment            E)        None of the above


Q.2 (A) In a hypothetical economy, without taxes, the consumption(C) at different levels of real GDP (Y) is given here under:

        Real GDP              Consumption (Rs in Billion)
             (Y)                               (C)
           3,000                           1,500
           5,000                           3,000
i
Determine the size of MPC, MPS and Multiplier. (02)
ii
What increase in Government expenditures would be required to enhance the GDP level by Rs.3,000 billion, other things being equal. (01)
iii
Suppose Government wishes to reduce taxes. How much tax reduction shall be required to increase the GDP level by Rs.3000 billion. (02)

Q.2 (B)

Read the following passage and answer the question given below:

As a result of the combined impact of improved investment to GDP ratio and deterioration in savings to GDP ratio, the saving investment gap is expected to widen during FY 2007 in Pakistani economy which would pose serious threat to macroeconomic stability. The short term strategy should aim at finding ways and means to finance this resource to improve domestic savings. However, there is a need to improve domestic savings in long-run by adopting a well thought out strategy.

i
Explain how rise in saving investment gap may have adverse implications on macroeconomic stability? (04)
ii
How can saving investment gap be financed in short run? (02)
iii
What policies should be adopted to improve domestic savings in long run? (04)

Q.3 A dialogue took place between two executives of a leading export company.
 

Mr. A: “Pakistan is a large cotton growing country but have a tiny 3% of the words’ textile market. Even it had become difficult to maintain this share”.

Mr. B: “I fully agree with you. There are certain countries that do not produce any cotton but their share is growing and is larger than our share. Japan and Bangladesh are two such countries”.

Mr. A: Even Cambodia is emerging as a large textile exporter, you know we have set a textile export target for Pakistan of $14.5 billion by 2010. This would require an investment in textile industry of $6 billion spread over three years in addition to $6 billion invested in the industry during the last three years.

Mr. B: To be competitive in global market, we need better competitive positioning, cheaper long term loans and favourable fiscal and monetary policy framework.

i
What are the major factors responsible for slower growth in textile exports? (5)
ii
What policy framework would you recommend to make the exports of our textiles globally competitive? (5)

Q.4 “Pakistan’s financial sector in pre-reform period was marred with physical and institutional weaknesses”. Do you agree. Give a brief over view of these weaknesses? (10)

Q.5 (A) Define the concept of inflation and core inflation? Identity some causes of inflation in Pakistan. (05)

Q.5 (B) Briefly outline the effects of Demand pull inflation and cost push inflation on real output? (05)

Q.6 (A) What are the net capital outflow and trade balance? Explain how these are related? (05)

Q.6 (B) How would increase in marginal propensity to save effect the level of output, prices and interest rates in the short-run and in the long-run? (05)

Q.7 “In an economy with no real growth, Government shall have no option but to finance its programs through debt financing”. Discuss (05)

Q.8
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) released its second quarterly report on the State of Economy on 30th March, 2007. An extract from the report is reproduced hereunder.
 
“More importantly, the significant improvement (and stability) in the macroeconomic fundamentals, high growth rates in recent years, sustained policy focus on the implementation of reforms for the liberalization of the economy, and relative stability of the exchange rate, continues to attract investors, resulting in a substantial rise in investment, particularly Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This improvement in investment will substantially boost the economy’s prospects of managing macroeconomic imbalances and improving the prospects of sustaining high growth rates in years ahead”.
 
A senior executive has asked for a clarification of the paragraph as also for your candid opinion as to the future trends. (10)