Monetary Economics - Stage-III
ISQ Examination (Summer-2007)


Q.1 Please write the alphabate of selected choice in the answer column:                                            (16)
i

Demand deposits are money because they are

A)      considered legal tender           B)      considered fiat money.
C)      considered token money        D)       considered a medium of exchange.
E)       none of the above

ii

According to equation of exchange, if V is kept as constant, an increase in M leads to an increase in

A)      demand for money       B)    real GDP                       C)      nominal GDP
D)      interest rate                  E)    none of the above

iii
An increase in interest rates causes

A)     a rise in the value of an asset generating income stream
B)     a rise in coupon payments
C)     a reduction in coupon payments
D)     a reduction in the price of an asset generating fixed income
E)      none of the above
iv

As price level decelerates,

A)      the demand for money reduces
B)      the investment level reduces
C)      the interest rates increases
D)      both the demand for money and interest rates increases
E)       none of the above

v

An appreciation of Pak rupee against a basket of currencies indicates that

A)      SBP should pursue an expansionary monetary policy stance
B)      SBP should pursue a contractionary monetary policy stance
C)      more foreign investment should come into Pakistan
D)      Pakistani exports should be discouraged
E)       none of the above

vi

A recessionary gap in Pakistan can be counteracted

A)     by raising of the SBP discount rate
B)     by contraction of money supply (M2)
C)     by selling of Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs) by SBP
D)     by pursuing an expansionary monetary policy stance by SBP
E)      none of the above

vii
Cost-push inflation is the outcome of

A)      an increase in output and high employment level
B)      an increase in cost of production
C)      a reduction in input prices
D)      an excessive growth in money supply (M2)
E)       none of the above
viii
If SBP responds to repeated negative supply shocks,

A)       the Pak economy is likely to face an undesirable state of stagflation.
B)       the Pak economy is likely to face deflation.
C)       the Pak economy may face recession in future.
D)       the Pak economy may face a continuous rise in price inflation.
E)        none of the above
ix

Monetary contraction ----------- domestic interest rates and leads to capital --------, which results into ------------ of Pak rupee.

A) increases, inflows, an appreciation                  B) decreases, inflows, a depreciation
C) increases, outflows, as appreciation                D) increases, outflows, a depreciation

x

Under its current monetary policy framework, the SBP is primarily responsible to --------------------------.

A)     issue currency notes and coins
B)     control money supply (M2) with focus on short-term interest rates.
C)     supervise scheduled banks
D)     lend funds to scheduled banks against T-bills/PIBs.

xi
Equation of exchange is equal to --------------------------------------.

A)    MV = PQ                                   B)     PQ + M = V
C)    GNP = V + M/PQ                     D)     GNP = V + P+ M.
xii

According to monetarists rule, the rate of increase in money supply should be equal to the rate of increase in ---------------------------------------- of an economy.

A) price level                         B) interest rates
C) potential GPD level           D) foreign exchange reserves

xiii

Demand-pull inflation below the potential of economy leads to ------------ and--------------------.

A)        an increase in both the real GDP growth, employment level
B)        a decline in both the real GDP growth, employment level
C)        a rise in prices, decline in employment level
D)        a fall in prices, rise in employment level

xiv

Monetary expansion results into an increase in aggregate demand if---------------------- and --------------.

A)     the money demand, investment demand curves are inelastic
B)     the money demand, investment demand curves are elastic
C)     money demand curve is elastic, investment demand curve is inelastic
D)     the money demand curve is inelastic, investment demand curve is elastic

xv

Liquidity risks relates to inability of a bank to meet its-----------------------------.

A) short-term liquidity demands          B) medium-term liquidity demands
C) long-term liquidity demands           D) long-term foreign exchange demands

xvi

The shocks like earthquakes and floods may result into ------------- in the short-run.

A) demand shocks and price acceleration         B) supply shocks and price deceleration
C) demand shocks and price deceleration        D) supply shocks and price acceleration


Q.2 State True or False in the answer column. Give brief reason for your selection at the space provided below the question: (08)
i
The most important function of money is to serve as a medium of exchange.
ii
Monetary policy impacts price level in the long-run.
iii
In reality, the actual GDP of an economy can be higher than the potential GDP.
iv
In a risk-based capital system, the Tier-III capital is limited to 100 percent of core capital only.
v
As real GDP increases, the desired level of money holdings expands.
vi
Currently the monetary policy stance of SBP is transmitted through its bi-annual Monetary Policy Statements.
vii
Inflation targeting strategy of monetary policy is also considered an automatic stabilizer of an economy.
viii
The ultimate objective of an easy monetary policy is depicted by a reduction in interest rates.

Q.4
Small Cases (20)
A
A central bank intends to control future inflation. If the central bank is operating under monetary aggregates targeting regime, what policy stance you recommend the central bank to pursue mainly to contain price hikes?
B
A central bank may pursue a contractionary or an expansionary monetary policy stance to achieve its targets. Being an analyst, how would you define a contractionary policy stance of the central bank if the policy stance does not result into a reduction in money supply (M2)?
C
The global imbalances are widening rapidly. The disorderly unwinding of global imbalances may cause undesirable moments in exchange rates, reversal of capital flows, and shaking the confidence of investors, which could affect severely the growth prospects of economies like Pakistan. You are required to suggest policymakers some strategies helpful in minimizing the impact of disorderly unwinding of global imbalances.
D
Excessive credit extension is said to be one of the leading indicators of banking crisis as it may lead to deterioration in the quality of banks portfolios and worsens the balance sheets of banks. You are required to suggest the policymakers some suitable policy measures mainly to minimize the adverse implications of excessive credit episodes.

Q.5 What are the major players in the banking system of Pakistan? What is the role of banks in the transmission mechanism of SBP monetary policy? (10)

Q.6 Explain the central bank autonomy. Why central banks need such autonomy? How the efficacy of central banks improves if they enjoy maximum autonomy? (10)

Q.7 What is monetary management? Briefly explain the institutional mechanism of monetary management in Pakistan. (10)

Q.8 Explain the salient features of communication strategy essential for the success of an inflation targeting regime. (06)

Q.9
Use an aggregate demand and aggregate supply diagram to illustrate and explain how each of the following will affect the equilibrium price level and real GDP:
A
Consumers expect a recession (03)
B
Foreign income rises (04)
C
Government spending increases (03)

Q.10
State Bank of Pakistan in its Monetary Policy for the period January to June 2007 mentioned key challenges. (10)
 
Key challenges facing the Pakistan economy remain the same as were at the beginning of FY07. In particular, (a) while inflation in likely to ease-off further it may remain above the 6.5 percent target for FY07 unless some additional administrative measures are taken to reduce food inflation; (b) international commodity prices may exert pressure on domestic inflation; (c) reserve money growth is increasing, among others because of textile sector support which is backed by SBP refinancing; (d) expansionary fiscal stance coupled with occasional upsurges in borrowings from SBP and the uncertainty created by financing mix of the deficit it posing difficulties for the conduct of monetary policy; and (e) burgeoning external imbalances also continue to pose a challenge.
A
In your opinion what changes here taken place since the release of monetary policy specify in the areas mentioned above.
B
Develop a note describing these challenges in a less technical language for the benefit of average Pakistani.